China’s pledge to fight to bitter end on trade wars is bluff
Tom Pauken II.- Apr 23
- 4 min read
On April 2, US President Donald J. Trump announced Washington would raise tariffs on all countries and set sky-high rates on nations that have massive trade deficits with the USA. President Trump declared it ‘Liberation Day’ for all Americans by signing and implementing a White House Executive Order on the Reciprocal Trade Act.
President Trump’s fundamental strategy was simple. He would capture the world’s attention by blasting all nation-states for engaging in unfair practices with the US and informing them that Liberation Day is ‘Punishment Day’ for them.
The messaging was intended to spark the ‘shock and awe’ impact; forcing all sovereign and regional governments to respond with an action plan. In accordance with reciprocal trade principles, they could only take one of two options.
They could retaliate by raising tariffs on US imports, while such actions would lead Washington to continue raising tariffs on them. Or they could take the conciliatory approach by not taking any punitive trade measures against the US.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had delivered a warning in a media interview by telling countries that if they don’t raise tariffs on US imports, they could receive benefits.
All nations, except one, had gotten the hint by backing down with many national leaders calling the White House to beg for fast surrender and vowing to make amazing trade and investment deals with the USA, alongside swearing support for the ‘America First’ globalist values’ system.
Japan stood most eager to prove they understood such demands. Japanese trade officials met President Trump at the Oval Office and wore red MAGA (Make America Great Again) hats to ensure Tokyo would get top priority in US trade deals.
Nonetheless, Beijing blundered and failed to comprehend Trump’s messaging for the moment. They misunderstood President Trump’s tough talking bluster as his sincere sentiments.
The Chinese government had hired foolish technocrat advisors, who told them that President Trump is rude and he must be punished for his unruly behaviour.
The technocrat advisors turned arrogant and had ramped up the pressure. They had written scores of academic reports claiming that if China will fight trade wars against the USA, Beijing would win. These same silly consultants were so eager to confront Trump that they had set up Social Media accounts to explain China’s path to victory in trade wars.
Amid the hysteria, the Chinese government had started to believe the hype. Beijing took steps to retaliate by raising tariffs and pledging to “fight to the bitter end.” But in hindsight, China’s big bad words were nothing more than an empty bluff.
There’s no way China could have won trade wars against President Trump. Let’s crunch the numbers and pursue logic here. The United States is the world’s largest economy, consumer and importer. The US holds military alliances with many nation-states across the globe. Americans are the great protectors for much of the world.
Washington is the leading sponsor of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), AUKUS (Australia-UK-US), USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada), Five Eyes (intelligence networks) Alliance US, Canada, Australia, United Kingdom and New Zealand, the QUAD (US, India, Japan and Australia, among many other alliances.
Should China have chosen the path of decoupling, the world’s largest economy would have gotten clobbered. Beijing was forcing all nations to support them over the US on trade deals. The Chinese government made public threats to raise tariffs on any country siding against them.
Such a dumb move, which had demonstrated desperation on China’s part. The idiot technocrat advisors had somehow persuaded Chinese trade officials that if Beijing asked countries to decouple from the US market they would have agreed to it.
Yet, the Chinese government had started to wake up to reality in recent days. Chinese ports were becoming ghost towns. Few countries would accept Chinese imports fearing that President Trump would punish them severely.
Accordingly, Chinese trade officials had begun to see the light and concluded that the path of least resistance was the best option.
Hence, rumors were swirling on Social Media that US and Chinese trade officials were holding secret meetings in Singapore, a neutral territory for both sides to air their grievances and seek ways to jumpstart official US-China bilateral trade negotiations.
In all likelihood, Chinese trade officials explained to Washington that President Trump’s aggressive mannerisms and tough talk would only cause the Chinese side to act more stubborn and President Xi would delay his phone calls with President Trump.
However, Trump’s trade team had likely explained to the Chinese side that China had failed to comply with the US-China Phase One Agreement, the Chinese government must do better at narrowing huge trade imbalances, the China market must treat US inbound investments on a level playing field, and Chinese manufacturers must open more factories and boost supply chains in the USA.
President Trump was making reasonable requests from China but Beijing needed to show a strong face to the world. The Chinese government could say that they were the last nation-state to “bend the knee” on trade wars. That’s true, they took the last stand.
We will soon hear about amazing announcements that both the US and China will lower tariffs that they had imposed on each other. China will call for Chinese companies to invest in the US market, while Beijing will take measures to boost consumption and narrow US-China trade deficits.
We will soon see a golden age of US-China partnership for peace and prosperity in our world with President Trump and President Xi agreeing to meet each other face-to-face in the near future.
Despite, the US and China fighting so hard, there’s going to be a reversal since both nations now hold much greater respect for each other.
(Tom Pauken II., author of US vs. China: From Trade Wars to Reciprocal Deal, AFAI Senior Fellow, Geopolitical Consultant based in Beijing, China)
X: @tmcgregochina
Footnotes
White House, “Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits,”
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